Back it January a group called “Gaza Youth Breaks Out”, issued the Manifesto reproduced below which perfectly sums up the problems of ordinary Palestinians young and old. Remember that Gaza has been virtually sealed off from the world since Hamas was elected to power back in 2006.
The manifesto ends with "We want three things. We want to be free. We want to be able to live a normal life. We want peace. Is that too much to ask?" Unfortunately the answer seems to be yes.
In the British Newspaper “Observer“ article one of the activists comments "Politics is bollocks, it is screwing our lives up. Politicians only care about money and about their supporters. The Israelis are the only ones benefiting from the division."
Fatah who run the West Bank have been effectively bought by the USA to give Palestine away in the endless farcical “peace process”, while the families of it’s leaders live abroad in relative luxury. Meanwhile Hamas is paid by Syria and Iran to run a proxy conflict with Israel. The REAL QUESTION for the “Likud Israeli Lobby” with branches in every Western capital, who seize on this to justify Israeli government policies, what other choice do Palestinians have to finance their resistance. Blame as always lies with the strong who have the space to make choices.
Hamas and Fatah have now agreed to work together. When the Palestinians gain their rights they will then have to fight their own politicians to keep them.
Here is the manifesto, I particularly liked the comment in the last paragraph about being sick of “religious bullshit”. There seems more of this than real faith in the world. Who will make this change? …………………………………..
"Fuck Hamas. Fuck Israel. Fuck Fatah. Fuck UN. Fuck UNWRA. Fuck USA! We, the youth in Gaza, are so fed up with Israel, Hamas, the occupation, the violations of human rights and the indifference of the international community!
"We want to scream and break this wall of silence, injustice and indifference like the Israeli F16s breaking the wall of sound; scream with all the power in our souls in order to release this immense frustration that consumes us because of this fucking situation we live in...
"We are sick of being caught in this political struggle; sick of coal-dark nights with airplanes circling above our homes; sick of innocent farmers getting shot in the buffer zone because they are taking care of their lands; sick of bearded guys walking around with their guns abusing their power, beating up or incarcerating young people demonstrating for what they believe in; sick of the wall of shame that separates us from the rest of our country and keeps us imprisoned in a stamp-sized piece of land; sick of being portrayed as terrorists, home-made fanatics with explosives in our pockets and evil in our eyes; sick of the indifference we meet from the international community, the so-called experts in expressing concerns and drafting resolutions but cowards in enforcing anything they agree on; we are sick and tired of living a shitty life, being kept in jail by Israel, beaten up by Hamas and completely ignored by the rest of the world.
"There is a revolution growing inside of us, an immense dissatisfaction and frustration that will destroy us unless we find a way of canalizing this energy into something that can challenge the status quo and give us some kind of hope.
"We barely survived the Operation Cast Lead, where Israel very effectively bombed the shit out of us, destroying thousands of homes and even more lives and dreams. During the war we got the unmistakable feeling that Israel wanted to erase us from the face of the Earth. During the last years, Hamas has been doing all they can to control our thoughts, behavior and aspirations. Here in Gaza we are scared of being incarcerated, interrogated, hit, tortured, bombed, killed. We cannot move as we want, say what we want, do what we want.
"ENOUGH! Enough pain, enough tears, enough suffering, enough control, limitations, unjust justifications, terror, torture, excuses, bombings, sleepless nights, dead civilians, black memories, bleak future, heart-aching present, disturbed politics, fanatic politicians, religious bullshit, enough incarceration! WE SAY STOP! This is not the future we want! We want to be free. We want to be able to live a normal life. We want peace. Is that too much to ask?"
Monday, May 23, 2011
Saturday, May 21, 2011
Israel Is The Future: Advanced, Secure and Racist.
Every possible sign points to the chances of Israel allowing a viable Palestinian state as nil. The Mainstream Zionist position is that the only people with rights in all of the land of Israel-Palestine are the Jewish people. A careful examination of all the facts shows that the Jewish and Palestinian people should have an equal right to Israel-Palestine. The people to blame ultimately are Europeans, due to European Antisemitism which culminated after centuries in the Holocaust. So if these equal rights cannot be exercised in the relatively small area of Israel-Palestine, then Europe is responsible for finding the alternatives to guarantee these rights elsewhere.
The lies told in Israeli propaganda to justify the mistreatment of Palestinians are incredible. This allows them to appear moral to themselves and still be oppressive, by creating an alternative reality. Example: "There were no Palestinians before Israel" .... "Zionists wanted to improve the lives of Palestinians, but they insisted on resisting help." .... "Israel must colonize the occupied territories to get Palestinians to negotiate." .... "Israel must defend itself against unprovoked attacks by racist Palestinians (ie: Gaza, ignoring the Israeli settlers, the Palestinian resistance to this, the Israeli retreat, the Hamas election, the Israeli air strikes and then the endless Israeli blockade and the Palestinian homemade rockets)." It goes on .... and no informed person really believes it anymore.
Then there is the "they hate us" argument. Israel is like a muscle building bully beating up a starving man, who after 90 years starts saying "You must stop hating me, I want peace but I can only stop beating you when you stop hating me." It is and always will be up to the strong to acknowledge the equal rights of the weaker side. This will never happen.
Israel has a first rate highly developed economy and educational system, but also runs a racist system which only recognizes the rights of one people while it controls two peoples. Far right groups in Europe now routinely take Israeli flags on their demonstrations to taunt Muslims and others. The far right are winning elections in significant numbers from Finland, Austria to Holland. Israel could be the future shape of Europe. Be aware....
The lies told in Israeli propaganda to justify the mistreatment of Palestinians are incredible. This allows them to appear moral to themselves and still be oppressive, by creating an alternative reality. Example: "There were no Palestinians before Israel" .... "Zionists wanted to improve the lives of Palestinians, but they insisted on resisting help." .... "Israel must colonize the occupied territories to get Palestinians to negotiate." .... "Israel must defend itself against unprovoked attacks by racist Palestinians (ie: Gaza, ignoring the Israeli settlers, the Palestinian resistance to this, the Israeli retreat, the Hamas election, the Israeli air strikes and then the endless Israeli blockade and the Palestinian homemade rockets)." It goes on .... and no informed person really believes it anymore.
Then there is the "they hate us" argument. Israel is like a muscle building bully beating up a starving man, who after 90 years starts saying "You must stop hating me, I want peace but I can only stop beating you when you stop hating me." It is and always will be up to the strong to acknowledge the equal rights of the weaker side. This will never happen.
Israel has a first rate highly developed economy and educational system, but also runs a racist system which only recognizes the rights of one people while it controls two peoples. Far right groups in Europe now routinely take Israeli flags on their demonstrations to taunt Muslims and others. The far right are winning elections in significant numbers from Finland, Austria to Holland. Israel could be the future shape of Europe. Be aware....
Saturday, May 7, 2011
Osama Bin Laden Is Dead What Of His Vision ?
Osama Bin Laden one of the founders of Al-Qaeda ("The Base") is dead. Killed on the 1st May by US marines in a house just next to one of Pakistan's major military colleges, where he had lived for five years. He joined the fight against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan in the 1980s when he became disgusted with the greed of the Saudi elite, of which he was a part. The Al-Qaeda doctrine is that the Muslim world has lost it's way morally and politically. Only their form of radical Sunni theology can free it from the overwhelming external and internal colonization that dominates it today. Their only success seems to have been the Taliban rule of Afghanistan of the 1990s , which became a byword for the cruelty of fundamentalist religion.
If countries in the Middle East achieve democracy then this will be a real death blow to Al-Qaeda. Will Egypt and Tunisia achieve real democracy? Will the war in Libya end, with the pro democracy rebels still in charge? Will the Assad regime fall in Syria, or will it continue to be propped up by Iran, China, Russia, Turkey ....? Will the Saudi and Gulf oil states move to constitutional monarchy, and take seriously their Islamic duty to invest in the human resources of the Arab world? When all this has happened is the time to celebrate, and say that all that Osama Bin Laden stood for was wrong. I pray for that day. God bless you.
If countries in the Middle East achieve democracy then this will be a real death blow to Al-Qaeda. Will Egypt and Tunisia achieve real democracy? Will the war in Libya end, with the pro democracy rebels still in charge? Will the Assad regime fall in Syria, or will it continue to be propped up by Iran, China, Russia, Turkey ....? Will the Saudi and Gulf oil states move to constitutional monarchy, and take seriously their Islamic duty to invest in the human resources of the Arab world? When all this has happened is the time to celebrate, and say that all that Osama Bin Laden stood for was wrong. I pray for that day. God bless you.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Threats to a successful “Arab Democratic Uprising” .
The “Arab Democratic Uprising” is going to need the support of people from neighbouring countries, and from ordinary people in long established democracies outside of the region.
In Syria the large scale escalation of violent suppression by Bashir Al-Assad’s security brigades has provoked the usual suspects Russia and China, to signal that they will veto any UN security resolutions against Syria, of the type issued against Libya. Remember it was Russia and China who attempted to delay and muzzle UN Security Resolution 1973 against Gaddafi.
In Egypt Robert Frisk says in a recent article…. “Field Marshal Tantawi, the head of the Egyptian army, for example, is now running Egypt. Yet he is not only a close friend of America, but a childhood and lifelong friend of Mubarak, who was allowed to whinge the usual ex-dictator’s self-congratulatory excuses on al-Arabia television (‘my reputation, my integrity and my military and political record’) prior to his own questioning – and inevitable emergency entry into hospital. When the latest Tahrir Square crowds also called for Tantawi’s resignation, the field marshal’s mask slipped. He sent his troops to ‘cleanse’ the square.”[ British Newspaper: The Independent “A long Time Coming” 15/4/2011 Robert Fisk]
Added to this Saudi Arabia is willing to underwrite any Gulf State in fighting democracy, as it has done in Bahrain. They are also offering help to the Syrian regime, in addition to help from long term ally Iran. While Algeria is suspected of secretly sending arms to Gaddafi’s regime, via it’s 600 miles shared border.
Going back to Robert Fisk’s article “And now let’s go a little further. On 31 March, the Israelis – who have steadfastly opposed the overthrow of the Middle East’s dictators – published a series of photo-reconnaissance pictures of southern Lebanon, supposedly marking the exact locations of 550 Hezbollah bunkers, 300 ‘monitoring sites’ and 100 weapons storage facilities run by Syria’s Lebanese Shia militia allies in the country. They had been built, the Israelis claimed, next to hospitals, schools and public utilities. The documentation was fake. Visits to locations marked on the map uncovered no such bunkers. Indeed, the real Hezbollah bunkers known to the Lebanese are not marked on the map. The Hezbollah quickly understood the meaning. ‘They are setting us up for the next war’, a veteran Hezbollah ruffian from the village of Jibchit told me……. But last week, the Turkish air force forced down an Iranian transport aircraft supposedly flying over Diyarbakir en route to the northern Syrian city of Aleppo with ‘auto spare parts’. On board the Ilyushin-76, the Turks found 60 Kalashnikov AK-47 assault rifles, 14 BKC machine guns, 8,000 rounds of ammunition, 560 60mm mortar shells and 1288 120mm mortar shells.” Forget Facebook. These are not part of any Arab “reawakening” or “uprising”, but further supplies for the Hezbollah to use in their next conflict with Israel. All of which raises a question. Is there a better way of taking people’s minds off [democratic] revolution than a new war against an enemy which has resolutely opposed the democratisation of the Arab world?”. [The Independent “The Arab awakening began not in Tunisia this year, but in Lebanon in 2005” 15/4/2011 Robert Frisk]
He is suggesting there is evidence of immanent preparations for another Lebanon war, which would simultaneously serve the purposes of Syria, Iran and Israel. It would provide the perfect excuse for the regimes involved to crack down on internal revolt.
In the same article Robert Frisk goes on to warn of the use of the phrase “civil war”, which was used by Western governments to delay intervention in halting the ethnic cleansing of Muslims in Bosnia. Many western media commentators have wanted to apply this concept on the basis of the filmiest evidence to the conflict in Libya, without I think a great deal of success.
Ordinary Arabs have direct experience of their rulers trying to encourage sectarian conflict to increase their hold on power. The internal colonizers using the same tactics as the external colonizers of empires past. Ordinary people have seen the consequences following the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and learnt the lesson that avoiding sectarian conflict is essential, rather than the misunderstanding picked up by western media pundits that sectarian conflict is inevitable.
It is the responsibility of people in Western countries to question their governments lack of intervention based on the excuse of “civil war”. It is also our responsibility to stop our government’s foreign polices, returning to the old policy of seeing the Middle East as a region fought over by rival powers using local dictators to secure advantage. This has been the case since the late nineteenth century, and the rivalry continues with the rise of China. In the past undemocratic foreign policies have been pursued by democracies, because their publics have been misinformed and disinterested. This must stop. Helping to secure true democracy abroad is in the interests of ordinary people in Western countries (rather than sometimes immoral elites) . It is evidently moral, and will in the long term secure real advantage over our undemocratic rivals.
In Syria the large scale escalation of violent suppression by Bashir Al-Assad’s security brigades has provoked the usual suspects Russia and China, to signal that they will veto any UN security resolutions against Syria, of the type issued against Libya. Remember it was Russia and China who attempted to delay and muzzle UN Security Resolution 1973 against Gaddafi.
In Egypt Robert Frisk says in a recent article…. “Field Marshal Tantawi, the head of the Egyptian army, for example, is now running Egypt. Yet he is not only a close friend of America, but a childhood and lifelong friend of Mubarak, who was allowed to whinge the usual ex-dictator’s self-congratulatory excuses on al-Arabia television (‘my reputation, my integrity and my military and political record’) prior to his own questioning – and inevitable emergency entry into hospital. When the latest Tahrir Square crowds also called for Tantawi’s resignation, the field marshal’s mask slipped. He sent his troops to ‘cleanse’ the square.”[ British Newspaper: The Independent “A long Time Coming” 15/4/2011 Robert Fisk]
Added to this Saudi Arabia is willing to underwrite any Gulf State in fighting democracy, as it has done in Bahrain. They are also offering help to the Syrian regime, in addition to help from long term ally Iran. While Algeria is suspected of secretly sending arms to Gaddafi’s regime, via it’s 600 miles shared border.
Going back to Robert Fisk’s article “And now let’s go a little further. On 31 March, the Israelis – who have steadfastly opposed the overthrow of the Middle East’s dictators – published a series of photo-reconnaissance pictures of southern Lebanon, supposedly marking the exact locations of 550 Hezbollah bunkers, 300 ‘monitoring sites’ and 100 weapons storage facilities run by Syria’s Lebanese Shia militia allies in the country. They had been built, the Israelis claimed, next to hospitals, schools and public utilities. The documentation was fake. Visits to locations marked on the map uncovered no such bunkers. Indeed, the real Hezbollah bunkers known to the Lebanese are not marked on the map. The Hezbollah quickly understood the meaning. ‘They are setting us up for the next war’, a veteran Hezbollah ruffian from the village of Jibchit told me……. But last week, the Turkish air force forced down an Iranian transport aircraft supposedly flying over Diyarbakir en route to the northern Syrian city of Aleppo with ‘auto spare parts’. On board the Ilyushin-76, the Turks found 60 Kalashnikov AK-47 assault rifles, 14 BKC machine guns, 8,000 rounds of ammunition, 560 60mm mortar shells and 1288 120mm mortar shells.” Forget Facebook. These are not part of any Arab “reawakening” or “uprising”, but further supplies for the Hezbollah to use in their next conflict with Israel. All of which raises a question. Is there a better way of taking people’s minds off [democratic] revolution than a new war against an enemy which has resolutely opposed the democratisation of the Arab world?”. [The Independent “The Arab awakening began not in Tunisia this year, but in Lebanon in 2005” 15/4/2011 Robert Frisk]
He is suggesting there is evidence of immanent preparations for another Lebanon war, which would simultaneously serve the purposes of Syria, Iran and Israel. It would provide the perfect excuse for the regimes involved to crack down on internal revolt.
In the same article Robert Frisk goes on to warn of the use of the phrase “civil war”, which was used by Western governments to delay intervention in halting the ethnic cleansing of Muslims in Bosnia. Many western media commentators have wanted to apply this concept on the basis of the filmiest evidence to the conflict in Libya, without I think a great deal of success.
Ordinary Arabs have direct experience of their rulers trying to encourage sectarian conflict to increase their hold on power. The internal colonizers using the same tactics as the external colonizers of empires past. Ordinary people have seen the consequences following the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and learnt the lesson that avoiding sectarian conflict is essential, rather than the misunderstanding picked up by western media pundits that sectarian conflict is inevitable.
It is the responsibility of people in Western countries to question their governments lack of intervention based on the excuse of “civil war”. It is also our responsibility to stop our government’s foreign polices, returning to the old policy of seeing the Middle East as a region fought over by rival powers using local dictators to secure advantage. This has been the case since the late nineteenth century, and the rivalry continues with the rise of China. In the past undemocratic foreign policies have been pursued by democracies, because their publics have been misinformed and disinterested. This must stop. Helping to secure true democracy abroad is in the interests of ordinary people in Western countries (rather than sometimes immoral elites) . It is evidently moral, and will in the long term secure real advantage over our undemocratic rivals.
Saturday, April 23, 2011
5 Reasons To Support Libyan Rebels
Five Good Reasons To Support Libyan Pro Democracy Rebels.
1. The conflict in Libya is between Gaddafi's security brigades and the Libyan people. It is not a civil war.
2. Gaddafi's security brigades have been armed and trained by foreigners for years, with money stolen from the Libyan people. This is the real foreign intervention. Arming and training the pro democracy rebels is reversing the effects of foreign intervention.
3. UN Security Resolution 1973 allows all reasonable means to defend Libyan civilians. This must mean defending civilians who are pursuing reasonable activities, which must include demanding a representative government (especially in the context of the current regional wave of pro democracy movements). Given the violent and uncomprising response of Gaddafi's regime, they cannot defend themselves while pursuing democratic change without arms and training. Recent events have shown that the direct assistance of foreign air forces is required to remove the threat of advanced weaponry. There is no other way that Libyans can stop Gaddafi terrorizing the public with planes, missiles and artillery.
4. To avoid chaos after Gaddafi's regime is removed, there must be a functioning and representative provisional government to replace it. This has been shown strongly in the Iraq and Afghanistan. The new government must have a functioning army to provide security. This obviously cannot happen without arms and training. Supplying these and other resources gives the rebel leadership more credibility, and gives leverage to foreign governments to ensure the rebels follow up on their democratic vision statement (see http://ntclibya.org/english/libya/). The process of creating a practical federal constitution, free media, independent judiciary .... must all start now.
5. Egypt has only started on the process of democratic transformation. The fall of Mubarak's government was due to a popular revolt and a split among the country's powerful elite. Groups close to the Army who were sidelined by Mubarak will attempt to steal power, which will then involve mass violent repression. Therefore Gaddafi's identical tactics must be shown to have failed, and this has to happen quickly. The same argument applies strongly to Syria, which is poised to revert back to the mass violence of Hafez Assad's era.
1. The conflict in Libya is between Gaddafi's security brigades and the Libyan people. It is not a civil war.
2. Gaddafi's security brigades have been armed and trained by foreigners for years, with money stolen from the Libyan people. This is the real foreign intervention. Arming and training the pro democracy rebels is reversing the effects of foreign intervention.
3. UN Security Resolution 1973 allows all reasonable means to defend Libyan civilians. This must mean defending civilians who are pursuing reasonable activities, which must include demanding a representative government (especially in the context of the current regional wave of pro democracy movements). Given the violent and uncomprising response of Gaddafi's regime, they cannot defend themselves while pursuing democratic change without arms and training. Recent events have shown that the direct assistance of foreign air forces is required to remove the threat of advanced weaponry. There is no other way that Libyans can stop Gaddafi terrorizing the public with planes, missiles and artillery.
4. To avoid chaos after Gaddafi's regime is removed, there must be a functioning and representative provisional government to replace it. This has been shown strongly in the Iraq and Afghanistan. The new government must have a functioning army to provide security. This obviously cannot happen without arms and training. Supplying these and other resources gives the rebel leadership more credibility, and gives leverage to foreign governments to ensure the rebels follow up on their democratic vision statement (see http://ntclibya.org/english/libya/). The process of creating a practical federal constitution, free media, independent judiciary .... must all start now.
5. Egypt has only started on the process of democratic transformation. The fall of Mubarak's government was due to a popular revolt and a split among the country's powerful elite. Groups close to the Army who were sidelined by Mubarak will attempt to steal power, which will then involve mass violent repression. Therefore Gaddafi's identical tactics must be shown to have failed, and this has to happen quickly. The same argument applies strongly to Syria, which is poised to revert back to the mass violence of Hafez Assad's era.
Friday, April 22, 2011
The Myth Of Democratic Inevitability
Like many people I have waited a long time for the Arab Democratic Spring. I have been both amazed and humbled by the sacrifices ordinary Arabs have made to win freedom. It is good to see all the rubbish spouted by so called experts that has demeaned Arab society, culture and religion to be exposed as rubbish. However I am also worried this pro-democracy movement could be crushed and reversed.
Recent sociological theory on the transformation of societies to democracy ("democratization") claims that democratic change is inevitable due to the creation of middle classes, reaction to inequality and the inherent inefficiency and corruption of autocratic systems. The idea is to promote peaceful economic and political cooperation between states and wait for autocratic states to sort their own internal political systems.
It is therefore not very surprising, given the severe problems following politically botched interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the current theories of democratization, that it is fashionable to heavily criticize intervention in pro-democracy struggles in the Middle East.
China and Russia are authoritarian regimes. According to the Democracy Index 2010 rankings (Economist Intelligence Unit) China is 136th and Russia is 107th , while the US is 17th and the UK 19th (what unites them however is they all have an equal veto vote in the UN's security council, what then of the reasonableness of this organization's mandates?). Both China and Russia are stable and are making economic progress, with no movement towards democracy.
A recent paper "The Myth of the Autocratic Revival: Why Liberal Democracy Will Prevail" by Deudney and Ikenberry 2009, makes the now standard arguments for the inevitability of democracy. It presents a false dichotomy between autocracy and full democracy. Recent events in Libya, Syria and Bahrain show repressive states crushing mass protests demanding freedom and equality with well armed security brigades. Given the state of sophisticated military technology available to today's unprincipled despot, what power does the fear of mass revolt really have? The arguments of accommodating the emerging middle classes and increasing economic efficiency still apply. Therefore the autocracy gives way to a hybrid system with wider democracy and strong legal protection (except for the poor), but which still leaves a large percentage of the consequently poor population with no representation.
Many Indians claim that there own country is like this. Aravind Adiga, author of "White Tiger"(2008) explained in an interview in 2009 with Brad Frenette. "The age old divide between the rich and poor takes a heavy toll on people who bear the brunt of poverty; leading impoverished lives. The chasm between the haves and have-nots defies all logic and reason. The burgeoning nexus between the corrupt public servants and the perverted political class is devouring the lesser mortals. This rot is not just killing but soul destroying. In the largest democracy of the world, BPL [Below Poverty Line] families are at the receiving end, used as pawns to be exploited and eliminated. There seem to be just two classes- the oppressor and the oppressed; the victor and the victim that define our social fabric." India is ranked 40th in the Economist rankings, despite the state sanctioned political violence that allows everyone to vote, but only some people to stand for election.
I know that the increase in the percentage of people who could vote, and concessions made to the poor in general, in nineteenth century Europe depended to a significant extent on the fear of a repeat of the French Revolution and the revolts of 1848. Democracy was then further extended in the twentieth century by the need to get entire populations motivated to fight two world wars. We underestimate in Western countries how much our success in creating democracies depended on the state of technology, that gave the masses economic as well as military power.
In summary democracy may well not prevail. If democracies do not support pro democracy revolts in other countries, then these waves of change may fail. The result will be a world in which democracies compete economically with countries with economies that only give meaningful support to small sections of their populations. The result will be a pressure for democracies to ditch their principles. In the words of President Lincoln in his famous 1858 House Divided Speech. ".....Either the opponents of slavery will arrest the further spread of it, and place it where the public mind shall rest in the belief that it is in the course of ultimate extinction; or its advocates will push it forward, till it shall become alike lawful in all the States, old as well as new -- North as well as South." If you think this is an overblown comparison, then imagine also a world that has a climate, food, resource and population crisis. We need good governance more than ever.
Recent sociological theory on the transformation of societies to democracy ("democratization") claims that democratic change is inevitable due to the creation of middle classes, reaction to inequality and the inherent inefficiency and corruption of autocratic systems. The idea is to promote peaceful economic and political cooperation between states and wait for autocratic states to sort their own internal political systems.
It is therefore not very surprising, given the severe problems following politically botched interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the current theories of democratization, that it is fashionable to heavily criticize intervention in pro-democracy struggles in the Middle East.
China and Russia are authoritarian regimes. According to the Democracy Index 2010 rankings (Economist Intelligence Unit) China is 136th and Russia is 107th , while the US is 17th and the UK 19th (what unites them however is they all have an equal veto vote in the UN's security council, what then of the reasonableness of this organization's mandates?). Both China and Russia are stable and are making economic progress, with no movement towards democracy.
A recent paper "The Myth of the Autocratic Revival: Why Liberal Democracy Will Prevail" by Deudney and Ikenberry 2009, makes the now standard arguments for the inevitability of democracy. It presents a false dichotomy between autocracy and full democracy. Recent events in Libya, Syria and Bahrain show repressive states crushing mass protests demanding freedom and equality with well armed security brigades. Given the state of sophisticated military technology available to today's unprincipled despot, what power does the fear of mass revolt really have? The arguments of accommodating the emerging middle classes and increasing economic efficiency still apply. Therefore the autocracy gives way to a hybrid system with wider democracy and strong legal protection (except for the poor), but which still leaves a large percentage of the consequently poor population with no representation.
Many Indians claim that there own country is like this. Aravind Adiga, author of "White Tiger"(2008) explained in an interview in 2009 with Brad Frenette. "The age old divide between the rich and poor takes a heavy toll on people who bear the brunt of poverty; leading impoverished lives. The chasm between the haves and have-nots defies all logic and reason. The burgeoning nexus between the corrupt public servants and the perverted political class is devouring the lesser mortals. This rot is not just killing but soul destroying. In the largest democracy of the world, BPL [Below Poverty Line] families are at the receiving end, used as pawns to be exploited and eliminated. There seem to be just two classes- the oppressor and the oppressed; the victor and the victim that define our social fabric." India is ranked 40th in the Economist rankings, despite the state sanctioned political violence that allows everyone to vote, but only some people to stand for election.
I know that the increase in the percentage of people who could vote, and concessions made to the poor in general, in nineteenth century Europe depended to a significant extent on the fear of a repeat of the French Revolution and the revolts of 1848. Democracy was then further extended in the twentieth century by the need to get entire populations motivated to fight two world wars. We underestimate in Western countries how much our success in creating democracies depended on the state of technology, that gave the masses economic as well as military power.
In summary democracy may well not prevail. If democracies do not support pro democracy revolts in other countries, then these waves of change may fail. The result will be a world in which democracies compete economically with countries with economies that only give meaningful support to small sections of their populations. The result will be a pressure for democracies to ditch their principles. In the words of President Lincoln in his famous 1858 House Divided Speech. ".....Either the opponents of slavery will arrest the further spread of it, and place it where the public mind shall rest in the belief that it is in the course of ultimate extinction; or its advocates will push it forward, till it shall become alike lawful in all the States, old as well as new -- North as well as South." If you think this is an overblown comparison, then imagine also a world that has a climate, food, resource and population crisis. We need good governance more than ever.
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Rebuttal of criticism of aiding the pro democracy rebels in Libya.
(copy of recent letter to a well intentioned critic of aiding the pro democracy rebels in Libya)
Hello [........],
I was surprised to see your letter in the [.........] newspaper. The wider vision is that the people in the Middle East have risen up against tyranny to demand democracy. I am sure we agree that Western democracies should be doing all that they can to support this. Experience shows that democratic governments do more to redistribute wealth among their own people on the whole than dictatorships.
Libya under Gaddafi is a police state, where dissent means torture and death. He has spent over 40 years building up security brigades to defend his regime. Libya obviously has oil wealth, which is not distributed to it's people as Gaddafi's government statistics claims (international bodies treat these as propaganda only). Even without these concerns, the ordinary people in Libya deserve the dignity of a truly representative government, as people in Western countries have.
For God's sake man, can you not see that if Gaddafi (the least trusted Middle Eastern leader) succeeds in crushing pro democracy rebels with overwhelming military force, this is the green light for the Syrian, Algerian, Bahraini, Yemeni .... regimes to do exactly the same, knowing the West will do nothing. The transformation in Egypt has only just begun, and there are powerful rivals to Mubarak waiting to recreate his regime under new management.
How is the looming war in Iran going to averted without a STRONG successful democratic movement in the Middle East, which will encourage the Iranian pro-democracy Green movement. Do you think Russians, Indians, Chinese ... will be content to see the wrongly demeaned Arabs take back control of their countries from internal colonization, and still be content to live with their governments who sometimes play lip service to democracy, while consistently stealing from their own people.
What happens if the pro democracy Arab Democratic Awakening fails? What will the threatened regimes do? They will embark on strengthening their secret police, and ruthlessly persecuting opposition. They will build up thier security brigades to make sure they have the resources to crush any future popular revolt. There are no second chances here. Ordinary people in the Middle East know they must act now, and we must support them. If you are comfortable with doing nothing, then ask yourself would you live in a police state?
War is a bastard for everyone, most of all children. We should be arming and training the pro democracy rebels to get this over with as quickly as possible. While making every generous move on our part, dependent on movement by the rebel government to do the things that make democracy work now (setup free media, create practical federal constitution, create a free judiciary ....).
Please see that the big picture is that there are no good choices only less terrible ones, we made our mistakes when the West derailed the whole region after the First World War, the people of the Middle East have had enough, it is time to heed their demands to us to help them defend their dignity.
God Bless You
John (see http://reasonandgoddemands.blogspot.com/)
Hello [........],
I was surprised to see your letter in the [.........] newspaper. The wider vision is that the people in the Middle East have risen up against tyranny to demand democracy. I am sure we agree that Western democracies should be doing all that they can to support this. Experience shows that democratic governments do more to redistribute wealth among their own people on the whole than dictatorships.
Libya under Gaddafi is a police state, where dissent means torture and death. He has spent over 40 years building up security brigades to defend his regime. Libya obviously has oil wealth, which is not distributed to it's people as Gaddafi's government statistics claims (international bodies treat these as propaganda only). Even without these concerns, the ordinary people in Libya deserve the dignity of a truly representative government, as people in Western countries have.
For God's sake man, can you not see that if Gaddafi (the least trusted Middle Eastern leader) succeeds in crushing pro democracy rebels with overwhelming military force, this is the green light for the Syrian, Algerian, Bahraini, Yemeni .... regimes to do exactly the same, knowing the West will do nothing. The transformation in Egypt has only just begun, and there are powerful rivals to Mubarak waiting to recreate his regime under new management.
How is the looming war in Iran going to averted without a STRONG successful democratic movement in the Middle East, which will encourage the Iranian pro-democracy Green movement. Do you think Russians, Indians, Chinese ... will be content to see the wrongly demeaned Arabs take back control of their countries from internal colonization, and still be content to live with their governments who sometimes play lip service to democracy, while consistently stealing from their own people.
What happens if the pro democracy Arab Democratic Awakening fails? What will the threatened regimes do? They will embark on strengthening their secret police, and ruthlessly persecuting opposition. They will build up thier security brigades to make sure they have the resources to crush any future popular revolt. There are no second chances here. Ordinary people in the Middle East know they must act now, and we must support them. If you are comfortable with doing nothing, then ask yourself would you live in a police state?
War is a bastard for everyone, most of all children. We should be arming and training the pro democracy rebels to get this over with as quickly as possible. While making every generous move on our part, dependent on movement by the rebel government to do the things that make democracy work now (setup free media, create practical federal constitution, create a free judiciary ....).
Please see that the big picture is that there are no good choices only less terrible ones, we made our mistakes when the West derailed the whole region after the First World War, the people of the Middle East have had enough, it is time to heed their demands to us to help them defend their dignity.
God Bless You
John (see http://reasonandgoddemands.blogspot.com/)
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