Marvelous news from Libya. Abdel Jalil of the Transitional National Council is speaking on Al Jazeera; stating that the New Libya will be a country based on a "moderate" Islamic framework, where all Libyans regardless of religion or ethnicity will be equal, and people from all areas of Libya will live in freedom and respect. This is what the TNC have been saying since the start of the revolution six months ago. Gaddafi's hold on Tripoli has largely fallen apart in a few days, showing that he ruled mainly by fear and bribery. His power is now evaporating, although some will still be connected to him by the stain of their past crimes.
Let us give thanks to God , the courage of mainly ordinary people fighting Gaddafi's mercenary army and the skill of Nato's armed forces (who in this case) have given the Libyan people the military space to shake off the internal colonisation of the Gaddafi family. One citizen soldier said early in this conflict that this was a "revolution of common sense." This summed up for me the madness of the Gaddafi regime, the maturity of politics in the Middle East especially amongst young people and the popular realization that time is running out for a new approach to change in this crucial region.
Now the question is, how many powerful authoritarian regimes outside Libya will want the New Democratic Libya to fail (Iran? Saudi Arabia? Bahrain? Algeria? and even some right wing American and European elites?). Let us therefore pray that God will give the Libyan people the strength of purpose to overcome the obstacles of the near future, when others will be tempted to privately exploit their weaknesses. More importantly pray that God will speak to ordinary people in outside countries that the success of Libya and the Arab Democratic Uprising is in our continuing common interest.
Remember that Iraq was a disaster because the authoritarian regime of Saddam Hussien gave way to sectarian strife. The Sunni versus Shia versus West conflict was fought out in Iraq. This was fueled by Iran, Saudi Arabia and Sunni Fundamentalists in general. On top of this the United States pursued the policies that encouraged a vacuum for the Iraqi civil war to take off.
Next let us pray that Muammar Gaddafi and his sons will appear in the International Criminal Court in the Hague or a similarly constituted tribunal in Libya. This will be right in itself, and the right start for the New Libya.
The next problem is to :
1. Remove Bashir al-Assad from control of Syria. To put at the very heart of the projected "Transitional Council of Syria", the truth that common humanity and a shared believe in the one God, rises many times above smaller differences of Sunni, Shia, Christian and Jew.
2. Prevent the governments of Israel and Iran from derailing the Arab Democratic Uprising (which is not in the interests of either of these countries elites) by genocide in Gaza.
3. Of critical and urgent importance to put pressure on the Egyptian military council, to change the current plan, so that international observers will be present to ensure fairness in the upcoming elections in Egypt in November this year.
If it is right that Gaddafi has gone, then is many times more right that Bashar al-Assad goes. I say as a Christian, but more importantly as a believer in God and his kingdom in this world, “Next Stop Damascus God Willing”.
(see Winning the battle of Libya after Gaddafi.)
Showing posts with label Libya. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Libya. Show all posts
Monday, August 22, 2011
Friday, June 3, 2011
Winning the battle of Libya After Gaddafi.
Now at the start of June the chances of the survival of Gaddafi's regime appear to be close to zero. The rebels are holding the line at Brega in the East, while the perimeter around Misrata has been extended to 30km. In the Western mountains there is still fierce fighting based around Zintan, although the rebels here are now in dire needs of Nato air support. Meanwhile the oil minister and three more generals have recently joined the stream of top people abandoning Gaddafi. The rebels now await the arrival of Nato Apache ground attack helicopters which can give close aerial support. They may well be the decisive factor that tips the balance and allows the rebels to roll up Gaddafi's army.
Clearly Libyans have a natural interest in ending forty years of dictatorship by Gaddafi. The success of this revolution is also important to the whole of the Arab Democratic Uprising. It shows that Tunisia and Egypt are not special cases, and democracy can succeed even against large scale state violence.
Indeed UN war crimes investigator Cherif Bassiouni of Egypt, has recently produced a report accusing Gaddafi of "crimes against humanity". Although he also found the rebels guilty of far fewer incidences of "war crimes" against government loyalists and suspected mercenaries.
The ordinary people in Western countries (not their self interested elites) have an interest in the Libyan revolution succeeding, because democracy abroad is crucial to democracy at home. The ultimate success of the Arab Democratic Uprising and the Libyan revolution in particular, is for ordinary people in Western countries, in our direct interest.
So we have a right to ask what will happen after Gaddafi is gone.
Back in March the National Transitional Council released "A vision of a democratic Libya" statement. The contents can be summarized as:
1. Create a constitution, balancing legislative, executive and judicial powers.
2. Form political parties and civil society.
3. Peaceful transfer of power, to allow political participation without
discrimination.
4. Right to vote in free elections, and run for office for all citizens.
5. Freedom of media and for peaceful protest.
6. State based on strong religious beliefs in peace, truth, justice and equality.
7. (a) Prosperous economy to get rid of poverty and unemployment.
(b) Strong public and private sectors, without corruption.
(c) Invest in education and science. Guarantee rights of women.
(d) Get rid of religious and ethnic intolerance and discrimination.
8. (a) Respect neighbouring nations and join the international community.
(b) Condemn authoritarian and despotic regimes. Respect foreign companies.
(c) State will strongly support peace, democracy and freedom.
Also on the 7th May a road map was produced, whose contents can be summarized as follows:
1. Declare Interim Government within 2 days of withdrawal by Gaddafi forces.
Agree members of this government in advance.
Interim Government to maintain security and order.
Members of government from National Transition Council,
technocrats, military and security (not involved in past crimes),
judge and civil and religious society.
Also three members from Gaddafi's government.
2. National Conference within two weeks of Gaddafi regime going.
Members from all over the country. Representation
depending on population size of regions or cities.
3. National Conference and National Transitional Council join together.
Committee creates draft constitution within 45 days.
4. Draft constitution shown to Libyan people, who vote in referendum
under UN supervision.
5. Parliamentary elections four months after constitution adopted,
voting under UN supervision.
6. Presidential elections two months after first Parliament created.
7. President selects Prime Minister, who then selects cabinet.
8. If Parliament approves, the Interim Government is dissolved.
9. As a "dry run" the UN will oversee municipal elections in rebel
held areas as soon as possible.
Will the road map lead to the fulfillment of the vision? So far the experience of the Transitional National Council gives genuine reasons for concern, inspite of the incredible odds that it has overcome. It is a purely practical body, that has tried to be inclusive, whose purpose is to bring to an end more than 40 years of brutal dictatorship.
Radek Sikorski the foreign minister of Poland after a trip in May to Benghazi said:
"Poland learned the hard way that demanding change and defying oppression are much less difficult than formulating and delivering a clear, reasonable programme for a better future. Not all popular demands for freedom succeed: in the confusion, reactionary forces can make their move."
He then cited Belarus as an example, of what can go wrong.
The well known disputes between General Abdul Fatah Younis and General Khalifa Hifter in the rebel army are worrying. This is an army which is not well trained or equipped. It's members could well have stronger ties to individuals within the ruling council (or later on the government), than they do to the nation. The danger is then of real civil war, if tensions within the newly liberated country are not dealt with, when the unifying opposition to the tyrant Gaddafi has gone. In addition a poorly equipped army will not be able to provide protection against break away groups. Foreign governments should have been quicker to help develop the professionalism of the rebel army with training and equipment, especially after the terrible disaster of the security vacuum in Iraq.
The wiki leak US cables about Libya display an almost racist attitude that ordinary Libyans are not really interested in democracy, and are wholly concerned with money. This inspite of the existence of the "National Conference of the Libyan Opposition" ( www.libya-nclo.com ), and the thirty year history of the "National Front For The Salvation Of Libya" ( www.libyanfsl.com ). What the wiki leak cables say about the Gaddafi regime may still be true "....country where personalities and relationships often play more important roles than official titles".
There has been criticism that within the National Transitional Council "there is little transparency about the process or criteria of portfolio allocation". However it has to be understood that security concerns mean that some people cannot be even named, and there is a natural tendency to depend on people you know and trust.
It seems unlikely that a new government that is democratic and stable is just going to appear in Libya. Will political parties be formed around regions, who will then make alliances in Parliament to secure a disproportionate percentage of the country's resources for their regions? Given a weak army that has a tendency to fragment, the resulting frustrations could then lead to uncontrollable armed conflicts within the country. How can this be resolved in advance? Surely waiting till after the constitution has been adopted will be too late.
A centralized federal structure for the country could be adopted in the constitution, which would give people freedom to organize their own local activities.
More importantly there has to be a way to guarantee, within the constitution and so at the very core of the national government , that both regions and groups within the country are not discriminated against in wealth distribution or in any other way. Especially as this technique was used by Gaddafi and other dictators, to punish rebellious regions.
Obviously since 95% of exports and 40% of GDP depend on the one source, that is oil, the problem of wealth distribution is critical. If there were guarantees in the constitution of economic equality for regions and ethnic or religious groups within society, then people could take their grievances to court rather than having to resort to violence. It would also discourage political parties from forming on regional lines, and trying to win elections by promising to obtain unfair economic advantage for their voters, as this technique could not succeed in the long run.
Given the possibility critical nature of the constitution for the future of Libyan democracy, is four or six months really long enough to discuss the options, and allow people to arrive at a considered decision in a referendum? Holland for example has a very clear guarantee of equality within it's constitution, which gives the concept of equality a power that normal legislation cannot give it.
Surely given the experiences in the region there needs to be detailed discussions about the length that any president can serve, and the limit of his powers.
Note that many of the problems of US democracy stem from representatives going to Washington to secure unfair economic advantages for their state. Although this process can be contained as America now has a strong central government, and regional identities are relatively weak with a very mobile population. In the nineteenth century it was economic conflicts between regions, that discriminated between North and South, that eventually led to the American Civil War. The factor of slavery was really of subsidiary importance.
(See: "The Roots Of The Modern American Empire" by William Appleman Williams, Anthony Blond Ltd, 1969 )
Just as importantly and aside from the constitution, there needs to be agreement on how loyalists to Gaddafi are to be treated in the new Libya. There needs to a South African style truth and reconciliation process.
Given that Qatar and the excellent Aljazeera have been so supportive of the revolution, where is the new vibrant free Libyan media? Surely it is needed to contrast with the absurd propaganda of the Gaddafi era, to hold the rebel administration to account by communicating successes and failures to the public and to provide a central space for discussion about rebuilding Libya and the options for a new constitution. Surely the resources and expertise exist to make this happen now.
Success in Libya would have a big effect on democratic uprisings elsewhere in the region. This could be the crucial link to bridge the gap between success in Tunisia and Egypt, to success in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Iran and even Bahrain. Leaving Saudi Arabia isolated and ready to negotiate and adopt a progressive role.
There are many countries and regimes that cling to the old style of doing things, which has impoverished and humiliated the people of the region for so long. Activists in Yemen have said that Saudi Arabia have been undermining their attempts to create a successful federal structure for Yemen after Saleh. In the same way Israel has recently been signaling that a new conflict with Hezbollah, that would indirectly aid the Syrian Assad regime, is in the pipeline. The Libyan revolution has many enemies, from Tehran to Riyadh To Washington, who are looking for weaknesses to exploit. So in mechanical terms, this is a time for an over engineered solution to rebuilding Libya with large margins for safety.
Clearly Libyans have a natural interest in ending forty years of dictatorship by Gaddafi. The success of this revolution is also important to the whole of the Arab Democratic Uprising. It shows that Tunisia and Egypt are not special cases, and democracy can succeed even against large scale state violence.
Indeed UN war crimes investigator Cherif Bassiouni of Egypt, has recently produced a report accusing Gaddafi of "crimes against humanity". Although he also found the rebels guilty of far fewer incidences of "war crimes" against government loyalists and suspected mercenaries.
The ordinary people in Western countries (not their self interested elites) have an interest in the Libyan revolution succeeding, because democracy abroad is crucial to democracy at home. The ultimate success of the Arab Democratic Uprising and the Libyan revolution in particular, is for ordinary people in Western countries, in our direct interest.
So we have a right to ask what will happen after Gaddafi is gone.
Back in March the National Transitional Council released "A vision of a democratic Libya" statement. The contents can be summarized as:
1. Create a constitution, balancing legislative, executive and judicial powers.
2. Form political parties and civil society.
3. Peaceful transfer of power, to allow political participation without
discrimination.
4. Right to vote in free elections, and run for office for all citizens.
5. Freedom of media and for peaceful protest.
6. State based on strong religious beliefs in peace, truth, justice and equality.
7. (a) Prosperous economy to get rid of poverty and unemployment.
(b) Strong public and private sectors, without corruption.
(c) Invest in education and science. Guarantee rights of women.
(d) Get rid of religious and ethnic intolerance and discrimination.
8. (a) Respect neighbouring nations and join the international community.
(b) Condemn authoritarian and despotic regimes. Respect foreign companies.
(c) State will strongly support peace, democracy and freedom.
Also on the 7th May a road map was produced, whose contents can be summarized as follows:
1. Declare Interim Government within 2 days of withdrawal by Gaddafi forces.
Agree members of this government in advance.
Interim Government to maintain security and order.
Members of government from National Transition Council,
technocrats, military and security (not involved in past crimes),
judge and civil and religious society.
Also three members from Gaddafi's government.
2. National Conference within two weeks of Gaddafi regime going.
Members from all over the country. Representation
depending on population size of regions or cities.
3. National Conference and National Transitional Council join together.
Committee creates draft constitution within 45 days.
4. Draft constitution shown to Libyan people, who vote in referendum
under UN supervision.
5. Parliamentary elections four months after constitution adopted,
voting under UN supervision.
6. Presidential elections two months after first Parliament created.
7. President selects Prime Minister, who then selects cabinet.
8. If Parliament approves, the Interim Government is dissolved.
9. As a "dry run" the UN will oversee municipal elections in rebel
held areas as soon as possible.
Will the road map lead to the fulfillment of the vision? So far the experience of the Transitional National Council gives genuine reasons for concern, inspite of the incredible odds that it has overcome. It is a purely practical body, that has tried to be inclusive, whose purpose is to bring to an end more than 40 years of brutal dictatorship.
Radek Sikorski the foreign minister of Poland after a trip in May to Benghazi said:
"Poland learned the hard way that demanding change and defying oppression are much less difficult than formulating and delivering a clear, reasonable programme for a better future. Not all popular demands for freedom succeed: in the confusion, reactionary forces can make their move."
He then cited Belarus as an example, of what can go wrong.
The well known disputes between General Abdul Fatah Younis and General Khalifa Hifter in the rebel army are worrying. This is an army which is not well trained or equipped. It's members could well have stronger ties to individuals within the ruling council (or later on the government), than they do to the nation. The danger is then of real civil war, if tensions within the newly liberated country are not dealt with, when the unifying opposition to the tyrant Gaddafi has gone. In addition a poorly equipped army will not be able to provide protection against break away groups. Foreign governments should have been quicker to help develop the professionalism of the rebel army with training and equipment, especially after the terrible disaster of the security vacuum in Iraq.
The wiki leak US cables about Libya display an almost racist attitude that ordinary Libyans are not really interested in democracy, and are wholly concerned with money. This inspite of the existence of the "National Conference of the Libyan Opposition" ( www.libya-nclo.com ), and the thirty year history of the "National Front For The Salvation Of Libya" ( www.libyanfsl.com ). What the wiki leak cables say about the Gaddafi regime may still be true "....country where personalities and relationships often play more important roles than official titles".
There has been criticism that within the National Transitional Council "there is little transparency about the process or criteria of portfolio allocation". However it has to be understood that security concerns mean that some people cannot be even named, and there is a natural tendency to depend on people you know and trust.
It seems unlikely that a new government that is democratic and stable is just going to appear in Libya. Will political parties be formed around regions, who will then make alliances in Parliament to secure a disproportionate percentage of the country's resources for their regions? Given a weak army that has a tendency to fragment, the resulting frustrations could then lead to uncontrollable armed conflicts within the country. How can this be resolved in advance? Surely waiting till after the constitution has been adopted will be too late.
A centralized federal structure for the country could be adopted in the constitution, which would give people freedom to organize their own local activities.
More importantly there has to be a way to guarantee, within the constitution and so at the very core of the national government , that both regions and groups within the country are not discriminated against in wealth distribution or in any other way. Especially as this technique was used by Gaddafi and other dictators, to punish rebellious regions.
Obviously since 95% of exports and 40% of GDP depend on the one source, that is oil, the problem of wealth distribution is critical. If there were guarantees in the constitution of economic equality for regions and ethnic or religious groups within society, then people could take their grievances to court rather than having to resort to violence. It would also discourage political parties from forming on regional lines, and trying to win elections by promising to obtain unfair economic advantage for their voters, as this technique could not succeed in the long run.
Given the possibility critical nature of the constitution for the future of Libyan democracy, is four or six months really long enough to discuss the options, and allow people to arrive at a considered decision in a referendum? Holland for example has a very clear guarantee of equality within it's constitution, which gives the concept of equality a power that normal legislation cannot give it.
Surely given the experiences in the region there needs to be detailed discussions about the length that any president can serve, and the limit of his powers.
Note that many of the problems of US democracy stem from representatives going to Washington to secure unfair economic advantages for their state. Although this process can be contained as America now has a strong central government, and regional identities are relatively weak with a very mobile population. In the nineteenth century it was economic conflicts between regions, that discriminated between North and South, that eventually led to the American Civil War. The factor of slavery was really of subsidiary importance.
(See: "The Roots Of The Modern American Empire" by William Appleman Williams, Anthony Blond Ltd, 1969 )
Just as importantly and aside from the constitution, there needs to be agreement on how loyalists to Gaddafi are to be treated in the new Libya. There needs to a South African style truth and reconciliation process.
Given that Qatar and the excellent Aljazeera have been so supportive of the revolution, where is the new vibrant free Libyan media? Surely it is needed to contrast with the absurd propaganda of the Gaddafi era, to hold the rebel administration to account by communicating successes and failures to the public and to provide a central space for discussion about rebuilding Libya and the options for a new constitution. Surely the resources and expertise exist to make this happen now.
Success in Libya would have a big effect on democratic uprisings elsewhere in the region. This could be the crucial link to bridge the gap between success in Tunisia and Egypt, to success in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Iran and even Bahrain. Leaving Saudi Arabia isolated and ready to negotiate and adopt a progressive role.
There are many countries and regimes that cling to the old style of doing things, which has impoverished and humiliated the people of the region for so long. Activists in Yemen have said that Saudi Arabia have been undermining their attempts to create a successful federal structure for Yemen after Saleh. In the same way Israel has recently been signaling that a new conflict with Hezbollah, that would indirectly aid the Syrian Assad regime, is in the pipeline. The Libyan revolution has many enemies, from Tehran to Riyadh To Washington, who are looking for weaknesses to exploit. So in mechanical terms, this is a time for an over engineered solution to rebuilding Libya with large margins for safety.
Saturday, April 23, 2011
5 Reasons To Support Libyan Rebels
Five Good Reasons To Support Libyan Pro Democracy Rebels.
1. The conflict in Libya is between Gaddafi's security brigades and the Libyan people. It is not a civil war.
2. Gaddafi's security brigades have been armed and trained by foreigners for years, with money stolen from the Libyan people. This is the real foreign intervention. Arming and training the pro democracy rebels is reversing the effects of foreign intervention.
3. UN Security Resolution 1973 allows all reasonable means to defend Libyan civilians. This must mean defending civilians who are pursuing reasonable activities, which must include demanding a representative government (especially in the context of the current regional wave of pro democracy movements). Given the violent and uncomprising response of Gaddafi's regime, they cannot defend themselves while pursuing democratic change without arms and training. Recent events have shown that the direct assistance of foreign air forces is required to remove the threat of advanced weaponry. There is no other way that Libyans can stop Gaddafi terrorizing the public with planes, missiles and artillery.
4. To avoid chaos after Gaddafi's regime is removed, there must be a functioning and representative provisional government to replace it. This has been shown strongly in the Iraq and Afghanistan. The new government must have a functioning army to provide security. This obviously cannot happen without arms and training. Supplying these and other resources gives the rebel leadership more credibility, and gives leverage to foreign governments to ensure the rebels follow up on their democratic vision statement (see http://ntclibya.org/english/libya/). The process of creating a practical federal constitution, free media, independent judiciary .... must all start now.
5. Egypt has only started on the process of democratic transformation. The fall of Mubarak's government was due to a popular revolt and a split among the country's powerful elite. Groups close to the Army who were sidelined by Mubarak will attempt to steal power, which will then involve mass violent repression. Therefore Gaddafi's identical tactics must be shown to have failed, and this has to happen quickly. The same argument applies strongly to Syria, which is poised to revert back to the mass violence of Hafez Assad's era.
1. The conflict in Libya is between Gaddafi's security brigades and the Libyan people. It is not a civil war.
2. Gaddafi's security brigades have been armed and trained by foreigners for years, with money stolen from the Libyan people. This is the real foreign intervention. Arming and training the pro democracy rebels is reversing the effects of foreign intervention.
3. UN Security Resolution 1973 allows all reasonable means to defend Libyan civilians. This must mean defending civilians who are pursuing reasonable activities, which must include demanding a representative government (especially in the context of the current regional wave of pro democracy movements). Given the violent and uncomprising response of Gaddafi's regime, they cannot defend themselves while pursuing democratic change without arms and training. Recent events have shown that the direct assistance of foreign air forces is required to remove the threat of advanced weaponry. There is no other way that Libyans can stop Gaddafi terrorizing the public with planes, missiles and artillery.
4. To avoid chaos after Gaddafi's regime is removed, there must be a functioning and representative provisional government to replace it. This has been shown strongly in the Iraq and Afghanistan. The new government must have a functioning army to provide security. This obviously cannot happen without arms and training. Supplying these and other resources gives the rebel leadership more credibility, and gives leverage to foreign governments to ensure the rebels follow up on their democratic vision statement (see http://ntclibya.org/english/libya/). The process of creating a practical federal constitution, free media, independent judiciary .... must all start now.
5. Egypt has only started on the process of democratic transformation. The fall of Mubarak's government was due to a popular revolt and a split among the country's powerful elite. Groups close to the Army who were sidelined by Mubarak will attempt to steal power, which will then involve mass violent repression. Therefore Gaddafi's identical tactics must be shown to have failed, and this has to happen quickly. The same argument applies strongly to Syria, which is poised to revert back to the mass violence of Hafez Assad's era.
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Rebuttal of criticism of aiding the pro democracy rebels in Libya.
(copy of recent letter to a well intentioned critic of aiding the pro democracy rebels in Libya)
Hello [........],
I was surprised to see your letter in the [.........] newspaper. The wider vision is that the people in the Middle East have risen up against tyranny to demand democracy. I am sure we agree that Western democracies should be doing all that they can to support this. Experience shows that democratic governments do more to redistribute wealth among their own people on the whole than dictatorships.
Libya under Gaddafi is a police state, where dissent means torture and death. He has spent over 40 years building up security brigades to defend his regime. Libya obviously has oil wealth, which is not distributed to it's people as Gaddafi's government statistics claims (international bodies treat these as propaganda only). Even without these concerns, the ordinary people in Libya deserve the dignity of a truly representative government, as people in Western countries have.
For God's sake man, can you not see that if Gaddafi (the least trusted Middle Eastern leader) succeeds in crushing pro democracy rebels with overwhelming military force, this is the green light for the Syrian, Algerian, Bahraini, Yemeni .... regimes to do exactly the same, knowing the West will do nothing. The transformation in Egypt has only just begun, and there are powerful rivals to Mubarak waiting to recreate his regime under new management.
How is the looming war in Iran going to averted without a STRONG successful democratic movement in the Middle East, which will encourage the Iranian pro-democracy Green movement. Do you think Russians, Indians, Chinese ... will be content to see the wrongly demeaned Arabs take back control of their countries from internal colonization, and still be content to live with their governments who sometimes play lip service to democracy, while consistently stealing from their own people.
What happens if the pro democracy Arab Democratic Awakening fails? What will the threatened regimes do? They will embark on strengthening their secret police, and ruthlessly persecuting opposition. They will build up thier security brigades to make sure they have the resources to crush any future popular revolt. There are no second chances here. Ordinary people in the Middle East know they must act now, and we must support them. If you are comfortable with doing nothing, then ask yourself would you live in a police state?
War is a bastard for everyone, most of all children. We should be arming and training the pro democracy rebels to get this over with as quickly as possible. While making every generous move on our part, dependent on movement by the rebel government to do the things that make democracy work now (setup free media, create practical federal constitution, create a free judiciary ....).
Please see that the big picture is that there are no good choices only less terrible ones, we made our mistakes when the West derailed the whole region after the First World War, the people of the Middle East have had enough, it is time to heed their demands to us to help them defend their dignity.
God Bless You
John (see http://reasonandgoddemands.blogspot.com/)
Hello [........],
I was surprised to see your letter in the [.........] newspaper. The wider vision is that the people in the Middle East have risen up against tyranny to demand democracy. I am sure we agree that Western democracies should be doing all that they can to support this. Experience shows that democratic governments do more to redistribute wealth among their own people on the whole than dictatorships.
Libya under Gaddafi is a police state, where dissent means torture and death. He has spent over 40 years building up security brigades to defend his regime. Libya obviously has oil wealth, which is not distributed to it's people as Gaddafi's government statistics claims (international bodies treat these as propaganda only). Even without these concerns, the ordinary people in Libya deserve the dignity of a truly representative government, as people in Western countries have.
For God's sake man, can you not see that if Gaddafi (the least trusted Middle Eastern leader) succeeds in crushing pro democracy rebels with overwhelming military force, this is the green light for the Syrian, Algerian, Bahraini, Yemeni .... regimes to do exactly the same, knowing the West will do nothing. The transformation in Egypt has only just begun, and there are powerful rivals to Mubarak waiting to recreate his regime under new management.
How is the looming war in Iran going to averted without a STRONG successful democratic movement in the Middle East, which will encourage the Iranian pro-democracy Green movement. Do you think Russians, Indians, Chinese ... will be content to see the wrongly demeaned Arabs take back control of their countries from internal colonization, and still be content to live with their governments who sometimes play lip service to democracy, while consistently stealing from their own people.
What happens if the pro democracy Arab Democratic Awakening fails? What will the threatened regimes do? They will embark on strengthening their secret police, and ruthlessly persecuting opposition. They will build up thier security brigades to make sure they have the resources to crush any future popular revolt. There are no second chances here. Ordinary people in the Middle East know they must act now, and we must support them. If you are comfortable with doing nothing, then ask yourself would you live in a police state?
War is a bastard for everyone, most of all children. We should be arming and training the pro democracy rebels to get this over with as quickly as possible. While making every generous move on our part, dependent on movement by the rebel government to do the things that make democracy work now (setup free media, create practical federal constitution, create a free judiciary ....).
Please see that the big picture is that there are no good choices only less terrible ones, we made our mistakes when the West derailed the whole region after the First World War, the people of the Middle East have had enough, it is time to heed their demands to us to help them defend their dignity.
God Bless You
John (see http://reasonandgoddemands.blogspot.com/)
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Aljazeera discussion on helping Libyan rebels
Excellent Aljazeera discussion on helping Libyan rebels.
See http://english.aljazeera.net/programmes/insidestory/2011/04/201141964916405691.html
"The siege of Misurata".
Brilliant discussion on what can be done to help the Libyan rebels. Muhammad Abdelmalik of "Libya Watch" says that what we should be doing is 1. Arming and training the rebels. 2. Quicker link between identifying the locations of Gaddafi's forces on the ground and air strikes (he says currently 8 hours!).
Steve Clemons of the New America Foundation was very relaxed about the fact that some revolutions fail. The problem with this is that the Egyptian revolution can still be stolen, and the revolutions in Syria and Yemen are uncertain. Gaddafi must not be allowed to show that extreme violence can crush democratic revolt. Steve Clemons then stated that perhaps there will be another revolution in Libya in the future that will succeed. Gaddafi's first instinct if he recovers power, will be to persecute all opposition ruthlessly and build up his security brigades. This will be echoed elsewhere in the region if the Arab Democratic Awakening fails. The process has started, there is no going back. If the chance is lost now, there will be no future chances. Arabs know this, even if American academics in comfortable safe think tanks do not.
See http://english.aljazeera.net/programmes/insidestory/2011/04/201141964916405691.html
"The siege of Misurata".
Brilliant discussion on what can be done to help the Libyan rebels. Muhammad Abdelmalik of "Libya Watch" says that what we should be doing is 1. Arming and training the rebels. 2. Quicker link between identifying the locations of Gaddafi's forces on the ground and air strikes (he says currently 8 hours!).
Steve Clemons of the New America Foundation was very relaxed about the fact that some revolutions fail. The problem with this is that the Egyptian revolution can still be stolen, and the revolutions in Syria and Yemen are uncertain. Gaddafi must not be allowed to show that extreme violence can crush democratic revolt. Steve Clemons then stated that perhaps there will be another revolution in Libya in the future that will succeed. Gaddafi's first instinct if he recovers power, will be to persecute all opposition ruthlessly and build up his security brigades. This will be echoed elsewhere in the region if the Arab Democratic Awakening fails. The process has started, there is no going back. If the chance is lost now, there will be no future chances. Arabs know this, even if American academics in comfortable safe think tanks do not.
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